Portfolio research — 2026-07-27

This report is book-centric. Generic market tourism is secondary. Held equities and priority interests (HYPE/LIT/VVV clusters, space proxies, etc.) are analyzed first with multi-lens cards.

Not investment advice. Exact account sizes and wallet addresses are withheld. Held vs interest is explicit. System opinions for designated rails only.

Active thesis map

• Summary: Crypto and most risk assets bottom Aug-Nov 2026 on 4y cycle; edge is positioning into volatility, not dating the low.
• Method: Expectations investing (Mauboussin-style); falsifiers; cluster caps; process over outcome

Book map

• Held equities (union): AMD, BMNR, BOT, GLD, GOOGL, HOOD, IBIT, KTOS, NVDA, ONDS, PLTR, QNT, RCAT, SPCX, TSLA
• Explicitly not held: ARKX, DXYZ
• Space rule: SpaceX is private. Tradeable proxies only: SPCX, DXYZ, ARKX. Never invent SpaceX calls.
• Crypto note: RH default account is crypto-heavy aggregate; per-coin list may be incomplete until a live per-coin export is refreshed. Priority crypto (HYPE/LIT/VVV) still researched.

Desk guidance (from the book)

• Weakest held vibes: GLD (defensive, bias trim_or_hedge_cluster).
• Highest held p_up 90d: HOOD 55% · hold_study.
• Cluster crypto_risk_perp active on book/priority: HYPE, LIT (driver: perp volume + BTC risk appetite). Size as one bet.
• Cluster ai_narrative active on book/priority: BOT, PLTR, VVV (driver: AI capex / scarcity premium). Size as one bet.
• Cluster space active on book/priority: SPCX, DXYZ, ARKX (driver: SpaceX float + space thematic). Size as one bet.
• Cluster sound_money active on book/priority: GLD, IBIT (driver: macro/liquidity/adoption). Size as one bet.
• Critical calendar: HYPE 2026-07-28 — unlock_window_primary_trackers.
• Critical calendar: HYPE 2026-07-29 — unlock_window_alternate_day.
• Critical calendar: LIT 2026-12-27 — INSIDER_CLIFF.
• Trending crypto pulse: 530A, PENGU, ONDO.

Predictions — p(price higher)

Symbol	Status	Lane	Short 14d	Medium 90d	Long 365d	Bias	Vibes
BOT	held	robotics	44%	46%	48%	hold_study	mixed 45%
BMNR	held	eth_treasury	41%	43%	46%	hold_study	mixed 54%
SPCX	held	spacex_proxy	47%	49%	52%	hold_study	mixed 48%
AMD	held	ai_compute	46%	48%	51%	hold_study	mixed 50%
GLD	held	sound_money	34%	36%	38%	trim_or_hedge_cluster	defensive 35%
GOOGL	held	ai_compute	41%	43%	46%	hold_study	mixed 43%
HOOD	held	robinhood_ecosystem	53%	55%	58%	hold_study	mixed 58%
IBIT	held	btc_core	47%	49%	52%	hold_study	mixed 54%
KTOS	held	defense_autonomy	34%	36%	38%	trim_or_hedge_cluster	defensive 35%
NVDA	held	ai_compute	47%	49%	52%	hold_study	mixed 54%
ONDS	held	defense_drones	47%	49%	52%	hold_study	mixed 54%
PLTR	held	ai_equity	34%	36%	38%	trim_or_hedge_cluster	defensive 35%
QNT	held	crypto_proxy	52%	54%	57%	hold_study	mixed 53%
RCAT	held	defense_drones	41%	43%	46%	hold_study	mixed 43%
TSLA	held	high_beta	39%	41%	44%	trim_or_hedge_cluster	defensive 38%
HYPE	interest	perp_dex	32%	34%	38%	avoid_new	defensive 35%
LIT	interest	perp_dex	27%	29%	32%	avoid_new	defensive 28%
VVV	interest	ai_token	36%	38%	40%	avoid_new	defensive 35%
DXYZ	interest	spacex_proxy_alt	30%	32%	36%	avoid_new	defensive 35%
ARKX	interest	space_thematic	38%	40%	43%	avoid_new	mixed 43%

Held names — multi-lens cards

BOT · held · robotics

Action bias: hold_study · p_up medium 46%

Quant / TA

• Last: 25.65 (yahoo) · trend soft · RSI14 32.2 · vol 127.2%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: -12.1% / -9.71% / None%
• SMA20/50: 31.941 / 31.01
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• CEF structure: premium/discount to NAV can dominate underlying.
• Thesis note: Most fragile; premium to NAV
• Cluster C/ai_narrative: driver=AI capex / scarcity premium
• Risk: On fragility rank — size as convex/lottery, not core.
• Risk: Premium-to-NAV can mean-revert violently.

Narrative / vibes / social

• BOT (robotics): mixed vibes (45%). TA trend=soft, RSI=32.2, 20d=-9.7%.
• Tags: fragile_rank, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: ISRG, ROK, PATH

BMNR · held · eth_treasury

Action bias: hold_study · p_up medium 43%

Quant / TA

• Last: 15.79 (yahoo) · trend short_bounce · RSI14 51.4 · vol 74.3%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: 0.64% / 18.54% / -26.49%
• SMA20/50: 15.293 / 16.6602
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Levered ETH via mNAV; discount/premium to NAV is the fundamental dial.
• Thesis note: Levered ETH via mNAV; deep discount ~0.61x late Jul
• Cluster B/eth_levered: driver=ETH path + mNAV
• Risk: On fragility rank — size as convex/lottery, not core.
• Risk: mNAV regime can gap vs ETH.

Narrative / vibes / social

• BMNR (eth_treasury): mixed vibes (54%). TA trend=short_bounce, RSI=51.4, 20d=+18.5%.
• Tags: bounce, strong_20d, fragile_rank, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: ETH-USD, ETHE, BITB

SPCX · held · spacex_proxy

Action bias: hold_study · p_up medium 49%

Quant / TA

• Last: 115.07 (yahoo) · trend neutral · RSI14 15.9 · vol 63.9%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: -7.19% / -24.79% / None%
• SMA20/50: 141.051 / None
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Proxy vehicle only — not SpaceX equity. Float/narrative sensitive.
• Thesis note: HELD (Trading+IRA) SpaceX proxy only
• Cluster D/space: driver=SpaceX float + space thematic
• Risk: On fragility rank — size as convex/lottery, not core.

Narrative / vibes / social

• SPCX (spacex_proxy): mixed vibes (48%). TA trend=neutral, RSI=15.9, 20d=-24.8%.
• Tags: oversold_rsi, deep_drawdown_20d, fragile_rank, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: RKLB, ASTS, BA

AMD · held · ai_compute

Action bias: hold_study · p_up medium 48%

Quant / TA

• Last: 521.95 (yahoo) · trend soft · RSI14 44.1 · vol 72.5%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: 5.28% / -1.99% / 61.49%
• SMA20/50: 533.0595 / 508.481
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Capex cycle + margins; hyperscaler demand.

Narrative / vibes / social

• AMD (ai_compute): mixed vibes (50%). TA trend=soft, RSI=44.1, 20d=-2.0%.
• Tags: in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, ASML

GLD · held · sound_money

Action bias: trim_or_hedge_cluster · p_up medium 36%

Quant / TA

• Last: 371.9 (yahoo) · trend downtrend · RSI14 41.3 · vol 21.2%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: 0.95% / 0.66% / -11.85%
• SMA20/50: 372.9265 / 390.1064
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Macro real rates + fiscal; hard-asset bid.
• Cluster F/sound_money: driver=macro/liquidity/adoption

Narrative / vibes / social

• GLD (sound_money): defensive vibes (35%). TA trend=downtrend, RSI=41.3, 20d=+0.7%.
• Tags: trend_down, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: GLD, SLV, TIP

GOOGL · held · ai_compute

Action bias: hold_study · p_up medium 43%

Quant / TA

• Last: 319.74 (yahoo) · trend downtrend · RSI14 26.5 · vol 41.1%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: -7.79% / -6.97% / -8.59%
• SMA20/50: 352.192 / 364.7038
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Capex cycle + margins; hyperscaler demand.

Narrative / vibes / social

• GOOGL (ai_compute): mixed vibes (43%). TA trend=downtrend, RSI=26.5, 20d=-7.0%.
• Tags: trend_down, oversold_rsi, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, ASML

HOOD · held · robinhood_ecosystem

Action bias: hold_study · p_up medium 55%

Quant / TA

• Last: 94.91 (yahoo) · trend soft · RSI14 28.5 · vol 71.8%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: -5.05% / 1.54% / 15.65%
• SMA20/50: 107.234 / 95.3258
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Retail activity + crypto/options mix + RH Chain optionality.
• Thesis note: Retail + RH Chain interest

Narrative / vibes / social

• HOOD (robinhood_ecosystem): mixed vibes (58%). TA trend=soft, RSI=28.5, 20d=+1.5%.
• Tags: oversold_rsi, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: COIN, SCHW, IBKR, SOFI

IBIT · held · btc_core

Action bias: hold_study · p_up medium 49%

Quant / TA

• Last: 36.35 (yahoo) · trend short_bounce · RSI14 51.5 · vol 31.2%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: 0.0% / 8.44% / -15.99%
• SMA20/50: 35.799 / 37.7738
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Spot BTC beta wrapper — value = AUM flows + BTC path, not operations.
• Thesis note: BTC convenience wrapper
• Cluster F/sound_money: driver=macro/liquidity/adoption

Narrative / vibes / social

• IBIT (btc_core): mixed vibes (54%). TA trend=short_bounce, RSI=51.5, 20d=+8.4%.
• Tags: bounce, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: BTC-USD, MSTR, COIN

KTOS · held · defense_autonomy

Action bias: trim_or_hedge_cluster · p_up medium 36%

Quant / TA

• Last: 47.35 (yahoo) · trend downtrend · RSI14 35.1 · vol 62.9%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: 2.87% / 2.22% / -23.21%
• SMA20/50: 49.1265 / 53.4402
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Program awards + autonomy spend; less crypto-cycle beta.
• Thesis note: Convex sleeve

Narrative / vibes / social

• KTOS (defense_autonomy): defensive vibes (35%). TA trend=downtrend, RSI=35.1, 20d=+2.2%.
• Tags: trend_down, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: LMT, NOC, RTX, BA

NVDA · held · ai_compute

Action bias: hold_study · p_up medium 49%

Quant / TA

• Last: 206.84 (yahoo) · trend short_bounce · RSI14 59.6 · vol 35.2%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: 1.99% / 5.67% / -2.97%
• SMA20/50: 203.3305 / 209.1844
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Capex cycle + margins; hyperscaler demand.

Narrative / vibes / social

• NVDA (ai_compute): mixed vibes (54%). TA trend=short_bounce, RSI=59.6, 20d=+5.7%.
• Tags: bounce, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, ASML

ONDS · held · defense_drones

Action bias: hold_study · p_up medium 49%

Quant / TA

• Last: 7.8 (yahoo) · trend short_bounce · RSI14 49.8 · vol 75.5%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: 19.54% / 1.63% / -25.57%
• SMA20/50: 7.4913 / 9.0667
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Defense budget + export; event-driven.

Narrative / vibes / social

• ONDS (defense_drones): mixed vibes (54%). TA trend=short_bounce, RSI=49.8, 20d=+1.6%.
• Tags: bounce, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: LMT, BA, AVAV

PLTR · held · ai_equity

Action bias: trim_or_hedge_cluster · p_up medium 36%

Quant / TA

• Last: 122.92 (yahoo) · trend downtrend · RSI14 35.7 · vol 51.3%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: -7.15% / 14.59% / -12.93%
• SMA20/50: 127.9 / 131.6141
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Expectations investing — growth vs multiple compression.
• Thesis note: Often expectations-expensive
• Cluster C/ai_narrative: driver=AI capex / scarcity premium

Narrative / vibes / social

• PLTR (ai_equity): defensive vibes (35%). TA trend=downtrend, RSI=35.7, 20d=+14.6%.
• Tags: trend_down, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: NVDA, MSFT, META, SMCI

QNT · held · crypto_proxy

Action bias: hold_study · p_up medium 54%

Quant / TA

• Last: 52.29 (yahoo) · trend neutral · RSI14 15.0 · vol 96.3%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: -6.74% / -27.05% / None%
• SMA20/50: 67.342 / None
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Lane thesis from the active map.

Narrative / vibes / social

• QNT (crypto_proxy): mixed vibes (53%). TA trend=neutral, RSI=15.0, 20d=-27.1%.
• Tags: oversold_rsi, deep_drawdown_20d, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: SPY, QQQ, BTC-USD

RCAT · held · defense_drones

Action bias: hold_study · p_up medium 43%

Quant / TA

• Last: 7.64 (yahoo) · trend downtrend · RSI14 28.1 · vol 88.4%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: 0.0% / -14.25% / -32.63%
• SMA20/50: 8.917 / 10.2906
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Defense budget + export; event-driven.

Narrative / vibes / social

• RCAT (defense_drones): mixed vibes (43%). TA trend=downtrend, RSI=28.1, 20d=-14.2%.
• Tags: trend_down, oversold_rsi, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: LMT, BA, AVAV

TSLA · held · high_beta

Action bias: trim_or_hedge_cluster · p_up medium 41%

Quant / TA

• Last: 313.03 (yahoo) · trend downtrend · RSI14 15.7 · vol 77.6%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: -17.81% / -16.55% / -16.75%
• SMA20/50: 388.7235 / 402.558
• Volume: elevated

Fundamental / structure

• Duration + narrative; not a cash-flow story first.

Narrative / vibes / social

• TSLA (high_beta): defensive vibes (38%). TA trend=downtrend, RSI=15.7, 20d=-16.6%.
• Tags: trend_down, oversold_rsi, deep_drawdown_20d, in_book
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: QQQ, ARKK

Priority interests (research — not held equities)

HYPE · interest · perp_dex

Action bias: avoid_new · p_up medium 34%

Quant / TA

• Last: 59.28 (coingecko) · trend neutral · RSI14 None · vol None%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: None% / None% / None%
• Volume: n/a

Fundamental / structure

• Fee + buyback reflexivity; unlock calendar is first-order risk.
• Thesis note: Largest concentration; AF buybacks; next unlock ~2026-07-28/29 (~9.9-14.2M — re-verify)
• Cluster A/crypto_risk_perp: driver=perp volume + BTC risk appetite
• Risk: On fragility rank — size as convex/lottery, not core.
• Risk: Interest/research only — not a confirmed held equity row.
• Risk: Calendar / unlock risk called out in thesis note.

Narrative / vibes / social

• HYPE (perp_dex): defensive vibes (35%). TA trend=neutral. Calendar: unlock_window_primary_trackers.
• Tags: calendar_event_near, fragile_rank, interest_or_related
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: BNB-USD, SOL-USD, ARB-USD

Calendar:

• 2026-07-28: unlock_window_primary_trackers (critical)
• 2026-07-29: unlock_window_alternate_day (critical)
• monthly~6th_UTC: contributor unlocks (None)
• 2026-07-28: unlock_liquidity_window_primary_trackers (critical)
• monthly-6th-utc: core_contributor_unlocks (None)
• 2026-08-06: core_contributor_unlock_tranche (high)

LIT · interest · perp_dex

Action bias: avoid_new · p_up medium 29%

Quant / TA

• Last: 67.81 (yahoo) · trend downtrend · RSI14 25.1 · vol 28.9%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: -0.83% / -13.56% / -19.05%
• SMA20/50: 72.26 / 78.7168
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Fee + buyback reflexivity; unlock calendar is first-order risk.
• Thesis note: 2026-12-27 insider cliff; same cluster as HYPE
• Cluster A/crypto_risk_perp: driver=perp volume + BTC risk appetite
• Risk: On fragility rank — size as convex/lottery, not core.
• Risk: Interest/research only — not a confirmed held equity row.
• Risk: Calendar / unlock risk called out in thesis note.

Narrative / vibes / social

• LIT (perp_dex): defensive vibes (28%). TA trend=downtrend, RSI=25.1, 20d=-13.6%. Calendar: INSIDER_CLIFF.
• Tags: trend_down, oversold_rsi, calendar_event_near, fragile_rank, interest_or_related
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: BNB-USD, SOL-USD, ARB-USD

Calendar:

• 2026-12-27: INSIDER_CLIFF (critical)
• 2026-12-27: INSIDER_CLIFF (critical)

VVV · interest · ai_token

Action bias: avoid_new · p_up medium 38%

Quant / TA

• Last: 38.96 (yahoo) · trend soft · RSI14 52.7 · vol 26.0%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: -2.53% / -1.91% / 20.32%
• SMA20/50: 39.0355 / 36.8826
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Token capture vs equity; emissions vs burns.
• Thesis note: Net inflation; equity vs token capture
• Cluster C/ai_narrative: driver=AI capex / scarcity premium
• Risk: On fragility rank — size as convex/lottery, not core.
• Risk: Interest/research only — not a confirmed held equity row.

Narrative / vibes / social

• VVV (ai_token): defensive vibes (35%). TA trend=soft, RSI=52.7, 20d=-1.9%. Calendar: emissions vs burns.
• Tags: calendar_event_near, fragile_rank, interest_or_related
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: SPY, QQQ, BTC-USD

Calendar:

• continuous: emissions vs burns (None)
• continuous: staking_emissions (None)
• continuous-2027-01: team_vesting_tail (None)
• 2026-08-03: DIEM supply step (None)
• 2027-07: series_a_lock_expiry (None)

DXYZ · interest · spacex_proxy_alt

Action bias: avoid_new · p_up medium 32%

Quant / TA

• Last: 23.3 (yahoo) · trend downtrend · RSI14 41.6 · vol 62.9%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: -10.28% / -6.05% / -20.18%
• SMA20/50: 25.6215 / 35.4556
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• NOT HELD — research interest only
• Thesis note: NOT HELD — research interest only
• Cluster D/space: driver=SpaceX float + space thematic
• Risk: Interest/research only — not a confirmed held equity row.

Narrative / vibes / social

• DXYZ (spacex_proxy_alt): defensive vibes (35%). TA trend=downtrend, RSI=41.6, 20d=-6.0%.
• Tags: trend_down, interest_or_related
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: SPY, QQQ, BTC-USD

ARKX · interest · space_thematic

Action bias: avoid_new · p_up medium 40%

Quant / TA

• Last: 30.37 (yahoo) · trend downtrend · RSI14 21.0 · vol 29.6%
• Chg 5d/20d/60d: 0.23% / -4.86% / -7.1%
• SMA20/50: 31.9905 / 33.6252
• Volume: normal

Fundamental / structure

• Basket exposure; diluted SpaceX purity.
• Thesis note: NOT HELD — research interest only
• Cluster D/space: driver=SpaceX float + space thematic
• Risk: Interest/research only — not a confirmed held equity row.

Narrative / vibes / social

• ARKX (space_thematic): mixed vibes (43%). TA trend=downtrend, RSI=21.0, 20d=-4.9%.
• Tags: trend_down, oversold_rsi, interest_or_related
• Social: No paid social firehose in baseline. Tags are structure/calendar/TA derived. Upgrade path: Truth Social/X keyword scores when API keys exist.

Related bluechips: RKLB, BA, LMT

Related bluechips (context only)

Symbol	Linked via	Trend	p_up 90d
ISRG	unknown	downtrend	41%
ROK	unknown	soft	48%
ETH-USD	unknown	uptrend	60%
ETHE	unknown	short_bounce	51%
RKLB	unknown	downtrend	41%
ASTS	unknown	downtrend	43%
TSM	unknown	soft	55%
SLV	unknown	downtrend	36%

OSINT / global situations (book-linked)

• [critical] HYPE: unlock_window_primary_trackers — ~9.9-14.2M re-verify (why: Directly on the priority / concentration calendar)
• [critical] HYPE: unlock_window_alternate_day — unlock_window_alternate_day (why: Directly on the priority / concentration calendar)
• [normal] VVV: emissions vs burns — emissions vs burns (why: Directly on the priority / concentration calendar)
• [normal] HYPE: contributor unlocks — contributor unlocks (why: Directly on the priority / concentration calendar)
• [critical] LIT: INSIDER_CLIFF — INSIDER_CLIFF (why: Directly on the priority / concentration calendar)
• [critical] HYPE: unlock_liquidity_window_primary_trackers — evening synthesis: Messari/Tokenomics.com/news desks favor ~Jul 28 processing window; unstaking queue large (why: Directly on the priority / concentration calendar)
• [normal] VVV: staking_emissions — ~250k VVV/mo; net +~4.8%/yr after burns (why: Directly on the priority / concentration calendar)
• [normal] VVV: team_vesting_tail — ~312k VVV/mo (why: Directly on the priority / concentration calendar)
• [normal] HYPE: core_contributor_unlocks — ~9.92M HYPE/mo projected; claims discretionary (why: Directly on the priority / concentration calendar)
• [high] HYPE: core_contributor_unlock_tranche — monthly cadence; Tokenomist next unlock; ~1.2M HYPE/mo class (why: Directly on the priority / concentration calendar)
• [normal] VVV: DIEM supply step — 38k→40k DIEM by 2026-09-14 (why: Directly on the priority / concentration calendar)
• [critical] LIT: INSIDER_CLIFF — 50% supply begins 3y vesting ~3.2M LIT/wk (why: Directly on the priority / concentration calendar)
• [normal] VVV: series_a_lock_expiry — 1.5M grant + warrants on 5M (why: Directly on the priority / concentration calendar)
• [high] US rates / liquidity vs risk assets — Fed path, QT, USD — first-order for BTC/IBIT/BMNR/GLD cluster (why: sound_money + eth_levered + crypto risk)
• [high] Defense / autonomy budgets & conflicts — KTOS/RCAT/ONDS sleeve; awards and export news (why: held defense_drones + autonomy)
• [high] AI capex and agent productization — NVDA/AMD/GOOGL/PLTR/TSLA + VVV token capture debate (why: IRA AI sleeve + ai narrative cluster)
• [medium] SpaceX float rumor / launch cadence (proxy only) — SPCX held; DXYZ/ARKX interest-only — never invent SpaceX equity (why: SpaceX is private. Tradeable proxies only: SPCX, DXYZ, ARKX. Never invent SpaceX calls.)
• [critical] Perp-DEX volume, unlocks, competitive venues — HYPE+LIT single cluster; Hyperliquid vs rivals; unlock windows (why: largest crypto concentration risk)
• [medium] Retail brokerage + RH Chain narrative — HOOD equity + chain optionality; meme/options volumes (why: held HOOD)
• [watch] CG trending: buy and retire (530A) — rank score=0 market_cap_rank=None (why: Global attention pulse — map to related bluechips if narrative rhymes)

Method

1. Load the canonical holdings and ticker map.
2. Order: held → priority interest → related bluechips.
3. Lenses: quant/TA (Yahoo/CG), fundamental checklist, narrative/vibes, calendar.
4. OSINT agenda from unlocks + themes + CG trending.
5. Predictions = multi-horizon directional opinions with action bias — not orders.

Generated by portfolio research engine (cycle_id=pf-6e578dcd4e51).